2005, Number 36
Inside This Newsletter
● Call for Handicapping Profiles
● Call for Version 12 “Wish Lists”
● Call for ALL-Ways Papers
Wagering Series – Part 1
For ALL-Ways Users Only
● Scratching and Un-Scratching Horses
Newsletter Topic Index
Wagering Assistance Is On The Way
During 2005, we will be presenting a year long series of articles focusing on the wagering side of playing the horses. The objective is to help move as many players as we can into the profit column and to help increase the profitability of players who are already there. ALL-Ways Versions 12 and 13, currently under development, are also heading in the same direction with significant new features planned to be on the wagering side of things as well. New handicapping features will be included too, but the clear emphasis will be on wagering. That is right! Future versions of ALL-Ways software will not only help you handicap the races, they will help you find the best wagers, structure your wagers and keep track of how well you are doing.
If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to upgrade to ALL-Ways Version 11. The Standard Edition is posted for downloading on the ALL-Ways Free Software page on www.brisnet.com. Version 11 captures extensive information that will be used by the new wagering features planned for versions #12 and #13. If you want to get the most out of the new wagering features, you should upgrade to Version 11 as soon as possible. Please visit the What’s New Page on our Web site at www.frandsen.com for details about the new features in Version 11, including being able to view all handicapping reports on-screen.
As we start 2005, we would like to update the Handicapping Profiles posted on the Frandsen Publishing Web site for free downloading by ALL-Ways software handicappers. We ask that ALL-Ways software handicappers run the MRA Default and MRA Pace functions in the Analysis Module to automatically create new MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) profiles for each track you are submitting. Then, we ask that you send an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org. Include the track name and the number of races in your Race Database for each track. Simply attach, to the e-mail, the two files that make up your Handicapping Profiles for each track. The two files are iv.xxx and ivdex.xxx where xxx is the track code. These files are in your Franfile folder. To attach files to the e-mail, simply click the “ATTACH” button at the top of the e-mail screen or the button with a paper clip icon. You will then be given the chance to designate the folder that contains the files you are after. Just change the folder to Franfile, scroll through the files until you see the iv.xxx and ivdex.xxx files and double click on the file names. That is all there is to it. IT IS VERY EASY TO DO! The files will be attached to the e-mail when you send it to us. Thank you, in advance, for your support.tc "As we start 2005, we would like to update the Handicapping Profiles posted on the Frandsen Publishing Web site for free downloading by ALL-Ways software handicappers. We ask that ALL-Ways software handicappers run the MRA Default and MRA Pace functions in the Analysis Module to automatically create new MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) profiles for each track you are submitting. Then, we ask that you send an e-mail to email@example.com. Include the track name and the number of races in your Race Database for each track. Simply attach, to the e-mail, the two files that make up your Handicapping Profiles for each track. The two files are iv.xxx and ivdex.xxx where xxx is the track code. These files are in your Franfile folder. To attach files to the e-mail, simply click the “ATTACH” button at the top of the e-mail screen or the button with a paper clip icon. You will then be given the chance to designate the folder that contains the files you are after. Just change the folder to Franfile, scroll through the files until you see the iv.xxx and ivdex.xxx files and double click on the file names. That is all there is to it. IT IS VERY EASY TO DO! The files will be attached to the e-mail when you send it to us. Thank you, in advance, for your support."
ALL-Ways version 12 software is currently in development. But, there is still time to add additional features over and above those already planned. As always, we would very much like to receive suggestions from ALL-Ways software handicappers for the new features they would like to see in future versions of the software. We would like your ideas on both handicapping features and wagering features. Please give us a phone call or send a letter or an e-mail to Frandsen Publishing with your “Wish Lists”. See “How to Contact Frandsen Publishing” on the back page of this newsletter. We thank you, in advance, for your support. We do listen!tc "ALL-Ways version 12 software is currently in development. But, there is still time to add additional features over and above those already planned. As always, we would very much like to receive suggestions from ALL-Ways software handicappers for the new features they would like to see in future versions of the software. We would like your ideas on both handicapping features and wagering features. Please give us a phone call or send a letter or an e-mail to Frandsen Publishing with your “Wish Lists”. See “How to Contact Frandsen Publishing” on the back page of this newsletter. We thank you, in advance, for your support. We do listen!"
We would very much like to receive brief papers from ALL-Ways software handicappers illustrating how they have successfully integrated ALL-Ways software capabilities with their handicapping and wagering processes. Some of the best articles in past newsletters were submitted by ALL-Ways software handicappers who were willing to report on their progress. If you have a good story to tell, please send it in an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org or simply mail it to Frandsen Publishing at PO Box 1439, Minnetonka, MN 55345.
Winter: A Good Time to Learn
As soon as the Breeder’s Cup is over each year, the typical horseplayer experiences a real slow down in his or her handicapping activities. And, things don’t really start to get busy again until we are well on the way to the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. These slow months can, however, be put to very good use. It is a good time to review and refine handicapping and wagering strategies. We have some suggestions:
1. Consider reading (or re-reading) some of the powerful handicapping and wagering articles that have appeared in ALL-Ways Newsletters over the years. To help with this, we have prepared a Summary Index of the articles. It is shown on Page 3 of this newsletter.
2. Print out the Top 10/Ranking handicapping report in ALL-Ways software for a number of races. If you do this after the race results have been automatically entered for the races, the three Top 10 lists and the 16 Ranking lists on the report will not only show you the ranking position of every horse for every factor on the report, but it will also identify the win, place, show and 4th place horses in each list. This visual review is very powerful and will give you some new insights for your handicapping. In the ALL-Ways Professional Edition, you may also customize the entire Top 10/Ranking Report making it possible for you to review whatever 19 handicapping factors you like. Again, we believe you will find this visual look at each race to be a very helpful exercise. It will help you make your final wagering selections.
3. Professional Edition users may want to use this time to run the Full Updates in the Angle Assistant and then run the Queries to automatically create your own Custom Search Definitions (angles). As you know, horses that meet the requirements of your angles will then be identified on the Search handicapping report. This effort will get you well prepared for the busy 2005 season between the Kentucky Derby and the Breeder’s Cup.
Wagering Series – Part 1
This is the first in a series of four articles that will appear in ALL-Ways Newsletters published in 2005. These articles will not cover specifics of how to wager on certain types of bets such as Pick 3’s, Trifectas, etc. Such specific wager ideas are contained in articles already published (See the Newsletter Summary Index on the opposite page). The articles in this new Wagering Series will, however, cover realistic, concrete actions you can take to improve your “bottom line” at the track. We believe these articles will help players who are losing money at the track to move into the profit column and help already profitable players do even better.
This first part of this series covers establishing realistic expectations. It also presents concrete recommendations for helping players who are losing money to “stop the bleeding” and, believe it or not, to have fun while doing so. Subsequent articles in this Wagering Series will cover ideas that will help you isolate weaknesses in your wagering and ways to systematically improve your performance over time.
Fact 1: Over time, most horseplayers lose money at the track. Conventional wisdom says in the range of 5% of players actually make a profit. We believe the actual figure is somewhat higher than this because of the fact that a growing number of players are taking advantage of on-line information services like BRIS and many are taking advantage of advanced handicapping software such as ALL-Ways. These people have a decided advantage over players who are still relying on older handicapping methods. And remember, in pari-mutuel wagering, your competition is made up of all the other players. The real point here is that making money at the track is not an easy task and a majority of players do not achieve profitability.
Fact 2: Most horseplayers have unrealistic expectations as to what constitutes wagering success. Many, if not most, players have expectations that are not in touch with reality. Consider some things we have heard. “I am only picking about 35% winners and you can’t make money unless you are up in the 50% range.” The fact is that most successful players only hit around 25% to 28% winners because they are not betting favorites. “A return-on-investment (ROI) in the range of 10% seems low.” Any player achieving 10% ROI is actually having to do so on top of overcoming the track takeout. So, if you make 10% net ROI, it means your handicapping and wagering are actually generating a gross return of 28% to 30%. This is the track takeout plus the 10% net ROI. Again, conventional wisdom says that successful players actually achieve a ROI in the range of 5%. “I am starting with a $5,000 bankroll and believe I can make a living at the track.” Looking at this goal a bit closer, if you want to generate $50,000 in profit at the track during a year while earning a ROI of 5% of the total amount wagered, it requires that your total amount wagered be in the range of $1 million. This means you need to turn your $5,000 bankroll over 200 times during the year. The likelihood of doing this without “tapping out” is slim indeed.
Successful professional players approach this endeavor in a very different way. Some will indeed generate $50,000 by achieving a 5% ROI on a total of $1 million wagered, but they will have large starting bankrolls, generally $100,000 and higher. Other professional players are taking advantage of the new concept of receiving rebates on the amounts they wager with selected on-line betting services. These players are happy if they break even on their actual wagers (just covering the track takeout) and make their net profits from the rebates, which can be as high as 6% for win bet wagers. Then there are the betting syndicates that pool their money to make huge ($10,000 and higher) wagers on Pick 6 tickets. To be sure, there are successful players that do not fall into the category of “professional”. We present these professional scenarios only in an attempt to drive home this point: To achieve success, you must define success as something reasonable.
“Stop the Bleeding”
If you are a horse player who is coming up short in terms of making a profit at the track, we have some suggestions that may help you start to turn it around. We are not saying to do all these things for the rest of your playing days. Just give them a chance to work over the next few months. They are intended as much to generate a change in attitude as they are to actually help generate a profit. Again, these are temporary changes to the way you play, although some of the changes will stay with you for life.
Goal: Make a $1 Profit
This fosters a change in attitude. Stop trying to make a bundle at the track, at least for now. Consider yourself successful if you leave the track with a $1 profit. This simple change in objective will take the pressure off your play and, if you really embrace it, you will have a good time getting there and feel great when you do. When making a $1 profit becomes routine for you, then move on up towards a higher, but still reasonable, goal.
Keep Track of Where You Are
You should know, at all times at the track, exactly how well you are doing. A great way to do this is to use the automated tellers (SAM machines). Put the amount you intend to wager during the day on a SAM voucher and use it all day long. This way, you will see exactly how much you are ahead or behind. It is preferable to have a separate ticket for each basic type of wager such as a Win voucher, a Show Partial Parlay voucher, an Exacta voucher, a Pick 3 voucher, etc. If you do not use separate vouchers, at the least you should keep notes on how well you are doing for each type of wager.
Lower Your Bet Size
Instead of $50 Win bets, play $5 or $10 Win bets. Instead of playing $10 Exactas, play $5 or even $2 Exactas. And, so on. Remember, your objective is not to make a killing. Just make a single dollar and you have achieved success. Again, when you are routinely making at least a $1 profit, then you can increase your bet size to increase your profit dollars.
Handicap the Night Before
If you get your handicapping done the night before you go to the track, you will be able to devote most of your time at the track on crafting your wagers. You can actually plan your wagers in advance as well. However, you cannot make final wagering decisions until you look at the real odds and, if applicable, the probable payoffs.
Make Fewer Wagers
It is important that you not try to make a wager on every race just to make a wager. You must choose your spots. We will offer more on this subject in later articles in this Wagering Series. You should not make a wager unless and until you feel strongly that you have the race figured out. Also, you will be better off not betting on favorites. So, if you understand the race and it appears the favorite is either false or at least very vulnerable, play the race. Otherwise, pass the race. This is perhaps the hardest thing you will be doing. It is called DISCIPLINE and the lack thereof causes more players to lose money than any other influence. We have long believed that the single most important trait shared by virtually all successful players is that they are disciplined at all times at the track. If playing fewer races on a card does not give you enough action, you are better off handicapping a second or third track to get the additional wagers.
Work Your Way Up
There is a logical progression to the types of wagers any player makes. For example, if you are unable to identify a good Key Horse that is not the favorite, your odds of picking non-favorite winners are not very good. After all, the Key Horse need only win, place or show. If you are having trouble selecting non-favorite win horses, then you will have some difficulty playing Daily Doubles, at least playing the Double the way it should be played. If you have trouble with the Double, then you will most likely have trouble playing the Pick 3. If you have trouble playing the Exacta, then you will have trouble playing the Trifecta and so on up to the Superfecta.
One very powerful advantage of setting your sites on just a $1 profit is that you do not need to tackle the types of wagers further up the progression. A really great way to start as you re-tool your game is to focus on two wagers in the beginning. One is two-horse win betting and the other is the Show Partial Parlay. You should have two SAM tickets, one for each of these two wager types. It may not sound exciting, but if you have changed your goal to just make a $1 profit, these two wagers are a lot of fun. And, when you have mastered these two wagers, you are ready to move up the wager type progression. For example, you will be in good shape to tackle Exactas and Trifectas because you narrowed down the number of win position horses for Exactas and Trifectas and you have been successful identifying Key Horses to hold down the cost of your Trifecta wagers.
Be Careful When You Are Ahead for the Day
There are two common mistakes made when a player gets ahead for the day. One is thinking that you are playing with the track’s money. When the money is in your pocket, it is your money, not the track’s money. Never, ever make a wager because you think the worst that can happen is to give the track back its own money. A loss is a loss is a loss and every loss is from your money.
Second, don’t blow it at the end of the day. There is a real temptation towards the end of the day to make one, two or more larger wagers in an effort to achieve better results for the day. If there is a good wagering opportunity, by all means pursue it. But, don’t lose discipline at the end of the day just because it’s the end of the day.
A much better way to handle being ahead during the day is to take some of your profits out of play. Twenty percent is a good amount. If you get up to $100 or so profit for the day, put $20 in your wallet. You will be amazed how much this simple action can improve your profitability over the course of several months.
Be Careful When You are Behind for the Day
Believe it. If you are behind for the day, the temptation to try to get it all back with larger and/or more difficult wagers towards the end of the day will be extreme. Just say “No!” You will be better off just accepting a loss for the day. Losing days will obviously happen to every player from time to time. But, when you are in the $1 profit mode, losses will not be large and they will not be emotionally draining.
There are four ALL-Ways Newsletter articles we suggest you read, or read again. They are:
• Do’s, Don’ts and Discipline
• The Curse of the Legitimate Favorite
• Pass/Play? That Should Be the Question
• Show Partial Parlay Wager
Please refer to the Summary Index of ALL-Ways Newsletters shown on the previous page.
For ALL-Ways Users Only
A very easy and fast thing to do in the ALL-Ways Handicapping Module is to handicap a race and then scratch a horse or horses and re-handicap the race, all in a matter of just a few seconds. By just clicking a button you can scratch and un-scratch any combination of horses to see how things change when the race is handicapped. When a horse is scratched, ALL-Ways software completely re-handicaps the race including generating a new odds-line. And, in Version 11, you are able to see the results displayed instantly on your computer screen. ALL-Ways software will also automatically make sure that all the horses, and only the horses, that actually ran in the race will be included in your Race Database for the track.
v Newsletter Topic Index v
|Pace Handicapping (Race Pace Shapes)||NL # 3|
|Spot Plays using Pace Handicapping||NL # 3|
|Using Pace to Handicap for Exactas and Trifectas||NL # 3|
|Quirin Race Shapes||NL # 4|
|Turn-Time||NL # 4|
|Handicapping Honest Pace Races||NL # 8|
|Quirin Speed Points||NL #13|
|Hall Pace and Speed Figures||NL #16|
| Includes explanations of Par
Times, Daily Track
Variants, track-to-track adjustments, velocity
based pace figures and “Conservation
|Best Early – Best Late||NL #18|
|An Effective Pace Handicapping Process||NL #21|
|Position Versus Pace: So Who Gets the Lead?||NL #33|
|Other Handicapping Topics|
|Contentious and Chaos Races||NL # 2|
|Evaluating Dangerous Non-Contenders||NL # 6|
|Spotting High Priced Horses||NL # 7|
|BRIS Prime Power Rating||NL #13|
|ALL-Ways Comprehensive Rating||NL #13|
|The “Going Back” Spot Play||NL #18|
|Simple Handicapping Tips to Improve Your Play||NL #23|
|ALL-Ways and BRIS Handicapping Contests||NL #25|
|ALL-Ways and BRIS: A Powerful Combination||NL #29|
|Turf Sprint Surprises||NL #29|
|Impact Values Versus Percentages||NL #32|
|New Age Handicapping||NL #32|
|“Fourth .. place itis” How to Avoid It||NL #33|
|Handicapping Profile Series|
|Race Segmentation||NL # 5, # 6|
|Creating Handicapping Profiles||NL # 7|
|Handicapping Profile Strategies:
Win Percentage Strategy
NL # 8
|Pace Handicapping With Brohamer Figures||NL #17|
|The Track Decision Model||NL #18|
|Energy Distribution||NL #19|
|Track Specific Articles|
|Handicapping the Inner Dirt Track at Aqueduct||NL #12|
|Handicapping at Saratoga||NL #22|
|Handicapping at Del Mar||NL #22|
|Handicapping at Keeneland||NL #25|
|Breeder’s Cup Articles|
|The 1998 Breeder’s Cup at Churchill Downs||NL #11|
|The 1998 Breeder’s Cup: Lessons Learned||NL #12|
|The 1999 Breeder’s Cup at Gulfstream Park||NL #15|
|The 2000 Breeder’s Cup at Churchill Downs||NL #19|
|The 2000 Breeder’s Cup: Lessons Learned||NL #20|
|The 2001 Breeder’s Cup at Belmont Park||NL #23|
|The 2002 Breeder’s Cup at Arlington Park||NL #27|
|The 2003 Breeder’s Cup at Santa Anita||NL #31|
|The 2004 Breeder’s Cup: Lessons From Prior Years||NL #35|
|The 2004 Breeder’s Cup at Lone Star Park||NL #35|
|D.V. – Using ALL-Ways||NL # 5|
|R.S. – Using ALL-Ways||NL # 9|
|G.H. – A Good Day at Santa Anita||NL #13|
|G.L. – Using ALL-Ways||NL #14|
|B.G. – Hitting the Trifecta at the Kentucky Derby||NL #26|
|S.U. – Avoiding Favorites||NL #30|
|D.N. – The 2004 Kentucky Derby||NL #33|
|J.T. – A Paddock Refresher||NL #34|
|The Magic ROI Formula and ROI Sensitivity||NL # 2|
|Simplified Money Management||NL # 4|
|Track Payoff Analysis||NL #14|
|Ten Ways to Cut Your Losses||NL #17|
|Do’s, Don’ts and Discipline||NL #22|
|Pass or Play; That Should Be the Question||NL #12|
|The Curse of the Legitimate Favorite||NL #30|
|Specific Wager Types|
|Two Horse Win Betting||NL # 4|
|Show Partial Parlay Wagering||NL # 28, NL #29|
|Betting the Daily Double||NL #10|
|Betting the Pick 3||NL #15|
|The Pick 3 versus the Pick 4 versus the Pick 6||NL #23|
|When an Exacta is Better Than a Trifecta||NL #26|
|Betting the Trifecta||NL #5, NL #6, NL # 7|
|Betting the Superfecta||NL #20|
Articles shown in bold print are widely considered in the industry to be “must reading’ for every horse player.
All 36 ALL-Ways Newsletters are posted on the Frandsen Publishing Web site at www.frandsen.com. These newsletters can be printed off the Web site and are free. You may also order all back issues of the newsletters in our familiar Green Sheet format. The price is $39.95 plus $5.00 shipping and handling. You may order from Frandsen Publishing by calling 952.937.9180 or you may mail a check to Frandsen Publishing for $44.95 at P.O. Box 1439, Minnetonka, MN 55345.
Be sure to check the What’s New page on our Website for
the latest announcements and alerts.